Summary
Gold spikes $40 to 3950 in an hour: rally heads into 3972-3980 resistance, sell rejections below 3998
Gold jumped from 3909 to 3950.7 in the last hour and trades 3941. D1 and H4 stay bearish below Kijun; the rally runs into 3972-3980 (H4 BB middle 3972, H4 Kijun and D1 Tenkan 3976.5). Sell rejections there; an H1 close above 3985 flips it to a buy.
Key levels
- Resistance · Minor4,044.00
- Resistance · Minor3,999.00
- Resistance3,972.00 – 3,980.00
- Now3,952.60
- Resistance · Minor3,951.00
- Support3,920.00 – 3,926.00
- Support · Minor3,909.00
- Support · Minor3,896.00
- Support · Minor3,870.00
Timeframes
| Timeframe | Direction | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| D1 | Rebound inside a downtrendMon 3898-3951, back above BB lower 3880; still below Tenkan 3976, Kijun 4044 and the cloud from 4275RSI(18) 37.1MACD -73.01 / -61.15Tenkan 3976.48Kijun 4043.66 | Mon 3898-3951, back above BB lower 3880; still below Tenkan 3976, Kijun 4044 and the cloud from 4275RSI(18) 37.1MACD -73.01 / -61.15Tenkan 3976.48Kijun 4043.66 |
| H4 | Bounce to Tenkan, Kijun 3976 aboveCurrent bar 3901→3950.7, at Tenkan 3935; below BB middle 3972 and Kijun 3976.5; MACD negative but narrowingRSI(18) 40.7MACD -35.88 / -33.25Kijun 3976.48BB middle 3972.23 | Current bar 3901→3950.7, at Tenkan 3935; below BB middle 3972 and Kijun 3976.5; MACD negative but narrowingRSI(18) 40.7MACD -35.88 / -33.25Kijun 3976.48BB middle 3972.23 |
| H1 | Breakout above Kijun and upper bandLast bar 3901→3950.7 on 3.5x volume; closed above Kijun 3931 and BB upper 3926; MACD rising over signalRSI(18) 53.4MACD -11.38 / -18.44Kijun 3930.91BB upper 3926.05 | Last bar 3901→3950.7 on 3.5x volume; closed above Kijun 3931 and BB upper 3926; MACD rising over signalRSI(18) 53.4MACD -11.38 / -18.44Kijun 3930.91BB upper 3926.05 |
| M15 | Overbought after a $40 spikeTwo bars ran 3908→3950.7, now 3940; Tenkan/Kijun 3921-3923, far above the cloud 3895-3909RSI(18) 71.5MACD 5.92 / 1.02Kijun 3920.83 | Two bars ran 3908→3950.7, now 3940; Tenkan/Kijun 3921-3923, far above the cloud 3895-3909RSI(18) 71.5MACD 5.92 / 1.02Kijun 3920.83 |
Trade plan
3 scenarios are prepared for this analysis. Sign in (free) to see their entry, stop loss and targets while the analysis is valid. They become public once it expires.
- Primary · Sell
- Breakout · Buy
- Counter-trend · Buy
Watch out
- US ISM manufacturing PMI tonight at 15:00 UTC can whip the price; avoid new entries 15 minutes before and after the release
- M15 RSI above 70 after a $40 one-hour move: do not chase buys at 3940-3950, a pullback to 3920-3926 is common
- US midterm elections on Tuesday, jobs report (NFP) on Friday 13:30 UTC: expect wider spreads and possible gaps
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