Summary
Gold breaks 3965 and tests the 3942-3958 June-July lows
The 3999 bounce was sold and gold broke 3965 to 3955.4, inside the 3942-3958 zone of the June-July lows. All timeframes stay below Tenkan/Kijun (D1 MACD -60.4 < -53.5), but H1-H4 RSI near 31 warns of a bounce: sell rallies to 3975-3983.
Key levels
- Resistance · Minor4,019.00
- Resistance · Minor3,997.00
- Resistance3,975.00 – 3,983.00
- Resistance · Minor3,965.00
- Now3,956.50
- Support · Minor3,947.00
- Support3,942.00 – 3,958.00
- Support · Minor3,925.00
Timeframes
| Timeframe | Direction | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| D1 | At the June-July lowsLow 3954.3 today; below Tenkan 4048.4 / Kijun 4091.3; BB lower 3947.2; MACD -60.4 < -53.5; RSI18 34.5RSI(18) 34.5MACD -60.38 / -53.47Kijun 4091.25BB lower 3947.18 | Low 3954.3 today; below Tenkan 4048.4 / Kijun 4091.3; BB lower 3947.2; MACD -60.4 < -53.5; RSI18 34.5RSI(18) 34.5MACD -60.38 / -53.47Kijun 4091.25BB lower 3947.18 |
| H4 | Breaking the lower bandLow 3955.4 under BB lower 3961.3; below Tenkan 4001.0 / Kijun 4019.2; MACD -19.0 < -9.3; RSI18 31.0RSI(18) 31.0MACD -19.00 / -9.26Tenkan 4000.96BB lower 3961.33 | Low 3955.4 under BB lower 3961.3; below Tenkan 4001.0 / Kijun 4019.2; MACD -19.0 < -9.3; RSI18 31.0RSI(18) 31.0MACD -19.00 / -9.26Tenkan 4000.96BB lower 3961.33 |
| H1 | Lower highs since 3999Highs 3999.4, 3991.9, 3982.5, 3970.8; below Tenkan 3983.6 / Kijun 3997.4; MACD -15.1 < -12.1; RSI18 31.7RSI(18) 31.7MACD -15.12 / -12.08Tenkan 3983.55BB lower 3961.12 | Highs 3999.4, 3991.9, 3982.5, 3970.8; below Tenkan 3983.6 / Kijun 3997.4; MACD -15.1 < -12.1; RSI18 31.7RSI(18) 31.7MACD -15.12 / -12.08Tenkan 3983.55BB lower 3961.12 |
| M15 | Oversold on the lower bandLow 3955.4 at BB lower 3954.6; below Tenkan 3968.9 / Kijun 3977.4; MACD -8.7 < -6.2; RSI18 29.9RSI(18) 29.9Kijun 3977.39BB lower 3954.60 | Low 3955.4 at BB lower 3954.6; below Tenkan 3968.9 / Kijun 3977.4; MACD -8.7 < -6.2; RSI18 29.9RSI(18) 29.9Kijun 3977.39BB lower 3954.60 |
Trade plan
- SellPrimarySell the bounce to 3975-3983
Trigger: Price bounces into 3975-3983 (M15 Kijun 3977, H1 Tenkan 3983.6) and an M15 candle closes back below 3972
- Entry
- 3,975.00 – 3,983.00
- Stop loss
- 3,999.00
- Target 1
- 3,947.00
- Target 2
- 3,926.00
Invalidation: H1 close above 3999 (this morning's high, H1 Kijun 3997.4) cancels the sell
- BuyCounter-trendBuy a rejection of 3942-3947
Trigger: Price dips into 3942-3947 (June 30 low 3942.1, D1 lower band 3947.2) and an H1 candle closes back above 3950 with a long lower wick
- Entry
- 3,942.00 – 3,947.00
- Stop loss
- 3,928.00
- Target 1
- 3,965.00
- Target 2
- 3,977.00
Invalidation: H1 close below 3935 cancels the buy: the June-July floor has given way
Watch out
- RSI is near 30 on M15, H1 and H4 and price sits on the June-July lows: selling at 3955 without a bounce risks a sharp short squeeze
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