XAU/USD analysis

Bearish

Archived analysis from Oct 30, 14:50 UTC. Prices and levels are as published then.

Latest XAU/USD analysis

Summary

Gold breaks the June-July floor and drops to 3891

The 3942-3958 floor gave way after 13:00: gold fell 79 points to 3891.2 and bounced to 3912. All timeframes point down (D1 MACD -63.9 < -53.9), but H1-H4 RSI near 24-25 is deeply oversold: sell rallies into 3935-3945, not the lows.

Key levels

  1. Resistance · Minor3,970.00
  2. Resistance · Minor3,958.00
  3. Resistance3,935.00 – 3,945.00
  4. Resistance · Minor3,928.00
  5. Now3,911.50
  6. Support3,891.00 – 3,898.00
  7. Support · Minor3,880.00
  8. Support · Minor3,865.00

Timeframes

TimeframeDirection
D1Below the lower band, range 128High 4019, low 3891.2 today; below BB lower 3935.8, Tenkan 4016.8, Kijun 4059.7; MACD -63.9 < -53.9; RSI18 32.3RSI(18) 32.3MACD -63.85 / -53.86Tenkan 4016.79BB lower 3935.81
H4Deeply oversold under the bandCandle 3970.8-3891.2 below BB lower 3947.5; Tenkan 3968.9 / Kijun 3987.1; MACD -22.6 < -9.7; RSI18 25.5RSI(18) 25.5MACD -22.58 / -9.66Tenkan 3968.87BB lower 3947.53
H1Two big red candles, then a wick13:00 fell 3955-3915, 14:00 hit 3891.2 then back to 3911; Tenkan 3945.3, Kijun 3964.5; RSI18 23.8RSI(18) 23.8MACD -22.83 / -14.50Tenkan 3945.29BB lower 3928.26
M15Bounce off the lower bandLow 3891.2 near BB lower 3898.2, back to 3912; below Tenkan 3925.5 / Kijun 3945.3; RSI18 24.4RSI(18) 24.4Tenkan 3925.46Kijun 3945.29

Trade plan

  • SellPrimarySell the bounce to 3935-3945

    Trigger: Price bounces into 3935-3945 (broken June low 3942, H1 Tenkan / M15 Kijun 3945.3) and an M15 candle closes back below 3932

    Entry
    3,935.00 – 3,945.00
    Stop loss
    3,962.00
    Target 1
    3,900.00
    Target 2
    3,880.00

    Invalidation: H1 close above 3962 (back inside the old 3942-3958 floor) cancels the sell

  • BuyScalpScalp a hold of 3891-3898

    Trigger: Price retests 3891-3898 (today's low, M15 lower band), holds with a higher low and an M15 candle closes above 3912

    Entry
    3,893.00 – 3,900.00
    Stop loss
    3,882.00
    Target 1
    3,925.00
    Target 2
    3,940.00

    Invalidation: M15 close below 3888 cancels the buy: the low is giving way

Watch out

  • Gold fell 79 points in under two hours and RSI is 24-25 on H1 and H4: moves are fast in both directions, keep size small and stops wide enough

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XAU/USD: Gold breaks the June-July floor and drops to 3891 (Oct 30, 14:50 UTC) | RefundHub247